Extra

Donald Trump’s March 4^th speech to the joint session of Congress marked the first six weeks of his second term in office. It also marked the end of phase 1 – a period where Trump was, for the most part, unchecked; a period where Trump pushed the limits of his executive power. Now we have entered phase 2, where Trump will encounter opposition from Congress and the judiciary. 

There were several aspects of phase 1, Trump’s “shock and awe” campaign. Trump issued more than 75 executive orders and made extensive use of presidential commutation powers. Trump enlisted the help of Elon Musk to establish the “Department of Government Efficiency;” this tactic allowed Trump to reduce the federal workforce by several hundred thousand workers. Trump also levied tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico. Finally, Trump was active in foreign policy; he dramatically changed our relationship with NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. 

The unifying theme of phase 1 was executive power. Trump took actions that did not need the approval of Congress. 

1. The Economy: Donald Trump was elected president because of his promise to fix the economy. The most recent Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation has surged, as the cost of gas, rents, and groceries went up. Trump now says this inflation is Biden’s fault and disavows responsibility for the economy: “I had nothing to do with that.” ( https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5152657-donald-trump-rising-inflation-doge-tariffs-economy/ ) Trump has failed to deal with inflation. 

2. Immigration: Trump declared a state of emergency and shut down all immigration (except for white Afrikaners). There have been raids throughout the country, staffed by ICE personnel supplemented by members of the FBI, DEA, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. Trump’s immigration numbers lag Biden’s. ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/02/15/ice-arrests-immigration-deportations/ ) So far, Trump has failed at “mass deportation.” 

3. Culture: During his presidential campaign, Trump ran on two cultural issues: DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and “Transgenderism” -- the supposed evil spread by the presence of transgender individuals in the US. During phase 1, Trump ruthlessly eliminated DEI programs in the federal government and influenced many corporations to shutdown their DEI initiatives. Trump relentlessly targeted transgender individuals -- roughly 1 percent of the population; about 2.3 million individuals. 

4. Mass Firings: 77,000 federal employees accepted Trump’s buyout offer. Trump followed this by laying off thousands who had not completed their probationary period – the Washington Post estimated this would affect 200,000 employees. Among the agencies affected are the Center for Disease Control, Energy Department, IRS, National Park Service, and the Veteran’s Administration. Trump and his acolyte, Elon Musk, seem determined to keep firing federal employees, regardless of the programmatic impact. 

On January 27^th, Trump issued a memo cutting off funding for popular benefit and grant programs. This also affected federal employment. 

5.Communication: In contrast to former President Biden, Donald Trump has given a press briefing most days of his tenure. As a result, Trump news dominates the airwaves. 

6. Foreign Policy: Trump’s foreign policy has become clear: the US will withdraw from traditional alliances and go it alone. Trump has offended most of our traditional allies. 

This new isolationism has terrible consequences for Ukraine. Trump wants to end US involvement in the conflict and withdraw US aid. Trump prefers to negotiate solely with Russian Premier Putin and is prepared to give Putin two things he wants: Russia will keep the Ukrainian territory it has seized, and the US will block Ukraine from joining NATO. 

In a surprise, Trump declared Canada our enemy. He’s determined to make Canada the 51^st state. Trump also wants to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal. 

PHASE 2 

If the unifying theme of phase 1 was executive power, phase 2 will be characterized by pushback from the judiciary and Congress. 

Lawsuits: Since Trump’s inauguration more than one hundred lawsuits have been filed to thwart his actions. More than thirty lawsuits relate to Trump's immigration policies. Approximately twenty challenge the actions of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Ten respond to Trump’s transgender policies. The balance oppose the president's unilateral changes to federal funding, government hiring and the structure of federal agencies. Many of these cases are still pending, but most of the judicial decisions favored the plaintiffs -- Trump’s actions have been deemed illegal/unconstitutional. 

Congress: Until this point, Trump did not need Congress. Now, Trump faces three deadlines that require him to work with Congress: On March 14h, the federal government runs out of money unless a continuing resolution is passed. Shortly thereafter, government borrowing will reach the debt limit. Next, Congress will consider Trump’s budget: Trump wants his 2017 tax cuts reauthorized (cost $4.5 trillion) and additional funds appropriated for Defense and Homeland Security ($340 billion). 

It’s unlikely that the Republican-controlled Congress can pass all three of these measures without securing votes from Democrats. This gives the Democratic minority an opportunity to exact concessions from Republicans. 

Communication: Democrats realize they cannot continue to let Donald Trump monopolize the news. In this phase we should expect Democrats to make changes to their communications strategy. 

Summary: Phase 2 will determine whether Donald Trump will continue to run roughshod over the Constitution or whether “check and balances” will hold. Whether the courts and Congress will do their job. Phase 2 should also indicate whether Democrats have figured out how to counter the Trump media blitz.