Page One

A major earthquake along the Hayward Fault could force the closure of UC Berkeley for a year, resulting in the loss of 8,900 jobs, $680 million in personal income and $861 million in sales during that period. 

Those are some of the findings reported in a new study commissioned by the university and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, released to the media on Monday. 

“This report makes clear that the efforts we have underway to protect life safety on our campus are exceptional, but that there is more to be done,” Chancellor Robert M. Berdahl said in a statement. “The future of the university and the well- being of the local and state economy require that UC Berkeley not only survive a sizeable earthquake, but that we are prepared to emerge from one ready to resume teaching and research without major delay.” 

The $750,000 study – the Disaster Resistant University Initiative – was designed to help research universities that may face a natural disaster to find ways to protect their research, facilities and human life. The research team was led by UC Berkeley professors Mary Comerio, John Quigley and Vitelmo Bertero. 

The worst-case scenario at UC Berkeley, closure of the university for a year, could happen if a very rare 7.25 quake occurred along the Hayward Fault. The most significant financial impacts would be felt in Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties. Even a less significant earthquake would still create a major impact on the region’s economy, the report states. 

The study also points out that the damage estimates are based on the conditions of campus structures today. Currently, six major building retrofits are in progress, and four more are scheduled for completion between 2001 and 2006. The Hayward Fault passes next to or under several UC Berkeley structures. The university has launched a $1 billion retrofitting effort, dubbed SAFER (Seismic Action for Facilities Enhancement and Renewal) Plan in an attempt to make the campus more resilient and resistant. 

UC Berkeley officials note that their campus is not alone in either its vulnerability to a natural disaster or in its need for preparation and planning. Tulane University, the University of Miami, California State University-Northridge and the University of North Dakota are among those universities hit by natural disasters during the last decade. 

The Disaster Resistant University Initiative aims to develop disaster recovery and business resumption plans first for UC Berkeley, which is serving as the nation’s model, and then for other universities facing the threat of natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. 

To produce the report, the researchers assessed financial, physical and operational damage likely to result from earthquakes of three different magnitudes.  

For example, they found that the campus, home to more than 40,000 students, faculty and staff in more than 100 academic departments and research units, has the highest number of science and engineering graduate students of all institutions surveyed by the National Science Foundation.  

Since many of these students remain in Northern California, including the Silicon Valley, after graduation, “the next Silicon Valley” could be lost to another state or region if the campus does not prepare for a major quake, the report warned.