Features

Vermont’s law granting marriage benefits to gay couples and Wisconsin’s ban on concealed weapons are just two of the volatile issues whose fate could be determined by the outcome of close races for control of many of the nation’s legislatures. 

Democrats and Republicans hold majorities in both legislative chambers in almost the same number of states — 18 versus 17 — but redistricting, term limits and retirements likely will change that Tuesday. 

A transfer of just four seats or less in 25 states could shift the power from one party to another in one or both legislative chambers. And that, in turn, has the potential to reshape the outcome of tax, school and health-care bills — all at a time when money is tight everywhere. 

“A whole new set of people will be leading and setting the agenda. That makes a huge difference,” says Tim Storey, an elections analyst with the National Conference of State Legislatures in Denver. 

Even before Election Day, 22 percent of 6,214 state lawmakers chosen will change because of term limits, retirements or primary losses, Storey notes. He predicts an additional 5 percent turnover after the votes are counted. 

These changes could have a dramatic impact. For example: 

— In Michigan, one of many states facing budget problems, lawmakers will take their cue from a new governor. If Republicans maintain control of both chambers, they may reconsider a bill to increase the number of charter schools. If Democrats take over, they may try to ban Canadian trash from disposal in Michigan and raise the minimum wage. 

— In Kentucky, if Democrats take the Senate — the GOP has a 20-18 edge — that will improve prospects for a mandatory state seat belt law and continued partial public financing of gubernatorial campaigns. 

— In Wisconsin, if Republicans control both chambers — they have a majority in the House, though Democrats hold a three-vote advantage in the Senate — there could be a push to expand the Milwaukee schools voucher program in the state and end a 150-year ban on concealed weapons. 

— In Vermont, a switch to Republican control in the Senate — Democrats hold a two-seat edge — could lead to a move to repeal the civil union law passed two years ago that grants marriage benefits to gay couples and possibly replace it with a broader reciprocal benefits law. 

No matter who is in charge, both Democrats and Republicans will share one problem: money. 

“Next year it’s going to be budget, budget, budget. Everything else is going to be relegated to fifth of sixth place,” says Constance Campanella, president of Stateside Associates, a consulting firm that tracks legislation.