Public Comment

On January 20, Donald Trump will reenter the White House. This is like knowing that the Allstate commercial character “Mayhem” is coming to your birthday party. Trump will make trouble. On day one he will sign far-reaching executive orders. 

Although Donald has a lot on his mind, the January 20 executive orders will focus on two areas: immigration and the economy. (He will also pardon those involved in the January 6 insurrection.) Trump believes he can make an impact on immigration and the economy without involving Congress. 

Immigration: Trump will sign two executive orders. The first will be advertised as “shutting down the border.” It will not be vastly different from the current Biden administration position; it will declare that no one who unlawfully enters the United State will be allowed to stay here while their status is decided. The primary danger of this order is that it will cause immigrant families to be separated. 

The second order will declare a state of emergency based on the supposed immigration invasion. Trump will invoke the “Insurrection Act of 1807.” This will allow him to use the US military, and national guard, to aid Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as they roundup immigrants with questionable status. 

There are 48 million immigrants in the US. Roughly 25 percent have unlawful status. Most immigrants are found in California, Texas, Florida, and New York. (California has the largest population of immigrants.) 

Issues: 1. Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act will launch a tsunami of legal challenges. 2. Trump will relish the opportunity to stick it to California and New York. 3. The operational reality will be messy. As a California resident, I will focus on the impact in the golden state. 

Trump’s “state of emergency” will flounder in California. Consider that California has 40 million residents and 10 million are immigrants with perhaps 2.5 million having questionable status. The targeted individuals are scattered throughout the state with a heavy concentration in Los Angeles County: 10 million residents with 4.9 million Hispanics. Let us assume that there are 1 million undocumented immigrants in LA county. 

The ICE is understaffed. Let us suppose that Trump enlists the California National Guard — 24,000 in total — to help ICE. (There are another 66,000 guard reserves.) This will not be a large enough task force. 

The current odds of ICE deporting an undocumented LA county resident is 2 percent (20,000 per year). How much help would the National Guard be in this endeavor? The National Guard are not trained in law enforcement. However, they could help ICE monitor locations where immigrants are known to congregate, such as union hiring halls. Let us suppose that this joint initiative triples the apprehension rate — 60,000 per year. At that rate it would take 16 years to “clear” undocumented immigrants from LA county. (I am assuming that Trump will not use regular military troops in California, because of the logistical problems.) 

Trump’s track record is that he is strong on inflammatory rhetoric but weak on implementation of his ideas. He wants to “purge” California of undocumented immigrants, but he will not be able to do this: 1. He does not have enough resources and is unlikely to get enough. 2. Most California law-enforcement agencies will not cooperate with ICE. 3. Immigrant communities will not cooperate with ICE. 4. The longer Trump’s “purge” goes on, the more unpopular it will become because it will have a negative impact on the economy. 

A recent study found that California undocumented workers make up about 50 percent of the agricultural workforce, 25 percent of construction workers, and 20 percent of hospitality/janitorial workers. They contribute $155 billion to the California economy and pay $77 billion in taxes. (California big Ag has already asked Trump for an exemption for agricultural workers. If Trump carries out his plan, California agriculture will be devastated.) 

What will happen? Trump will be frustrated with the slow pace of his “purge” in California. There will be a series of acerbic exchanges with California Governor Gavin Newsom. Trump will threaten to cut Federal funds to California — one-third of the California budget derives from Federal funds, primarily support for Medi-Cal. Trump will try to impound these funds — an illegal act. 

If there was a major disaster in California, an earthquake or fire, Trump could withhold FEMA funds. 

What can we do? 1. Support legal organizations, such as the ACLU, that will fight Trump’s “purge” and efforts to impound funds. 2. Support congressional efforts to deny Trump funds for his “purge.” 3. Support Governor Newsom as he battles Trump. 4. Oppose ICE actions in our communities. 

Bottom line: Trump’s purge will be irritating but ineffective. Because it will hurt the economy, will become unpopular. (One example, the impact on California agriculture will cause food prices to rise.) 

Who should be the opposition spokesperson? In California, the logical spokesperson is Gavin Newsom. 

The Economy: Trump promised to “fix” the economy, but most of his ideas — cutting taxes — require congressional action. Trump wants to do something dramatic, something that he can do by executive action. For this reason, Trump will sign an executive order levying tariffs on certain imported goods. 

Trump has given mixed signals about what countries he would levy tariffs against and how high these tariffs would be. It is likely that China will be his primary target. 

Bottom line: Trump was elected because he promised to fix the economy. Most Americans believed he would drive down inflation; they thought Trump would reduce the cost of food, housing, household and medical expenses. 

Trump’s immigration “purge” will drive up the cost of food. Trump has no plan to deal with housing. Trump’s tariffs will drive up the cost of household expenses. Trump has no plan to deal with medical expenses. 

What can we do? In this case, the role of the opposition is to broadcast that Trump is not fixing the economy. 

Who should be the opposition spokesperson? Every day, Trump will be in the news. He knows how to get media attention. The opposition must respond. 

Beginning January 20, once a week the opposition needs to hold a press conference where they need to drive home this point: Trump is not fixing the economy. He is making things worse. 

The opposition needs to have a single powerful spokesperson. Who? I nominate Pete Buttigieg. (He can have others prominent Dems help him.) 

Summary: Trump is Mayhem. To counter Trump, the opposition needs to become organized and speak with a unified voice.g