Extra

New: Senate Elections in 2021--and 2022i

Steven Finacom
Wednesday November 25, 2020 - 11:24:00 AM

Before the November election I wrote hopefully about opportunities for Democrats to win control of the Senate in the general election. Although Biden won the Presidency and Democrats retained control of the House of Representatives, things didn’t turn out so well in the Senate.  

Only two of the top priority seats to flip actually changed parties. Mark Kelly won in Arizona, and John Hinkenlooper won in Colorado. Unfortunately, Republican Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tilis in North Carolina won, holding those seats for Republicans. Democrat Doug Jones lost in Alabama, which was disappointing, but to be expected, so the net gain for Democrats was only one seat, to date. 

Nowhere else did Democrats unseat Republicans or win open Senate seats. Promising and capable Democratic or Independent candidates didn’t win in Montana, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, or Kentucky. 

So now we’re at a point with Senate Republicans having a 50-48 majority, with two seats left to decide. Both of these are in Georgia. Incumbent Senator David Purdue didn’t win more than 50% of the vote in the general election because a Libertarian candidate got a small percentage of the vote. Purdue will face a runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff on January 5. 

Similarly, appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler didn’t win reelection against several challengers, but was one of the top two finishers, along with Democrat Ralphael Warnock. They will be the only two candidates in a runoff for that seat on January 5. 

The Georgia January runoff will decide control of the Senate for the next two years. If Republicans remain in charge, we can expect Mitch McConnell to continue his strategy of blocking and ignoring Democratic appointees and initiatives. If Democrats win both seats, Vice President Kamala Harris will be the tie breaker on party line votes and there is a good possibility of passing decent legislation. 

The election will not be so much about “persuading” undecided voters as it is about getting existing supporters to the polls. Turnout will be key. Georgia Democrats, led by Stacy Abrams, did an amazing job in the general election of increasing both overall turnout, and votes for Democrats. Georgia even gave its electoral votes to Biden, as a result.  

So replicating as much as possible of that extraordinary Democratic get out the vote effort is essential. At the same time, there is the possibility that Republican turnout will decline. There are two tentative indicators of that.  

First, it seems possible there’s a certain type of conservative occasional but not reliable voter who is motivated to vote primarily when Donald Trump’s name is on the ballot, because Trump is so dependably certain to say out loud the truly vile things that many other people quietly think. 

But if Trump himself isn’t running, some voters don’t turn out, even if Trump endorses the Republicans in the race. We saw this in 2018 when some vigorously Trump-endorsed Republican candidates for Senate and House lost in mid-term elections. This implied that there are Trump supporters who aren’t motivated to vote for anyone other than him.  

And Trump himself won’t be on the Georgia ballot in the special election in January. 

Second, there is considerable political infighting and back-biting amongst Republicans in Georgia, with Trump predictably and petulantly stirring the pot by demanding that the Republican Governor and Secretary of State try to invalidate the presidential election results.  

There are also, apparently, some Republicans who hate Democrats but also despise Loeffler, who they regard as a wealthy and disconnected interloper, and may not go vote for her.  

And both Loeffler and Purdue have been involved in several recent scandals, including alleged behind-the-scenes financial dealings. 

Also, among the right wing lunatic fringe—not so much a small fringe now, as a growing contingent—there are apparently people absurdly saying they will write in Trump for the two Senate seats, or boy the special election entirely because they believe Trump’s spurious claims that all elections where he or Republicans don’t prevail are “rigged”. 

(If you want to see some genuine political craziness and incoherence, seek out some online commentary during December on the views of Georgia right-wingers on the runoffs. But it all may just be pointless chatter within echo chambers.) 


This could be wishful thinking from the other side of the continent, or it could somewhat reduce Republican votes in January.  

So how can you help Democrats win in the Georgia runoff?  

I’ve read a lot in the past two weeks about the runoff and have gotten two strong impressions. Yes, Democrats and others from outside Georgia can help.  

But the best way to help is to support existing Democratic organizations, often at the county level in Georgia, work on voter turnout for January. They showed in November that they can bring large numbers of voters to the polls.  

Here’s one detailed posting—this one from the DailyKos website—that I found particularly useful. It includes numerous links, particularly to Democratic organizations in key Georgia counties. County level organizations are often overlooked by national donors, but they are the people who actually know the hyper-local conditions and can get people to the polls. 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/21/1996436/-This-is-how-we-are-going-to-win-the-GA-runoffs-a-nearly-complete-guide 

An important quote from the piece: “There are literally dozens of worthy donation recipients for the runoffs. You cannot go wrong if you donate to the campaigns, a Democratic Party organization or one of the outside organizations listed here. I would however dissuade you from contributing to any national or out-of-state organization fundraising with a promise to help in the runoffs. Again: The people in Georgia know what they are doing, their stuff works. They need support, but no saviors.  

THE SENATE IN 2022  

I’ve largely given up trying to make predictions or even strong guesses about elections. We are in such strange times, with so many roiling political considerations and new factors (like COVID-19) that anything can change, and often does change, before an election. Two years is a long time, especially these days. 

That said, there are some reasons to be cautiously hopeful—albeit, two years in advance—about improved Democratic chances of winning the Senate in 2022. Take these thoughts not as predictions but as observations. 


First, because of the Trump surge in 2016, there are many more Republicans up for re-election to the Senate in 2022 than Democrats. 34 Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold 21, and Democrats hold 13. On a national level, that means Republicans need to worry about defending eight more seats, some of them in large states that suck up campaign donations.  

(If Warnock wins in Georgia in the special election, then the count will be 20 Republican incumbent seats, and 14 held by Democrats.) 

Most of the Democratic incumbents are in “blue” states such as California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Maryland, and parts of New England. So the chances of a sitting incumbent Democrat losing in 2022 are perhaps a little less, although it’s still possible. Arizona and Nevada will have incumbent Democrats up for re-election and are conventionally regarded as “purple”, not “blue” but both voted for Biden this year. 

No Democratic incumbents seem, at this point, strongly endangered in 2022 Senate contests but in New Hampshire the Republican governor, Chris Sununu, could challenge Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan. And next door in Vermont—which now reliably sends Democrats or Independents in the Senate—Democratic incumbent Patrick Leahy has said he will decide in 2021 on whether to run for re-election in 2022. 

The 21 Republican held seats are spread all over the map, most of them in “safe” red states but some of them in states that also voted for Biden this year, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. 

A couple of Republicans have already announced they are retiring from the Senate. They include Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Richard Burr in North Carolina. So the advantages of having an incumbent name on the ballot will be lost to Republicans, in those two states at least, in 2022. And both are states that can elect, and have recently elected, Democrats to statewide office. 

There are some other possibilities of Republican retirements. Both Richard Shelby in Alabama and Chuck Grassley in Iowa are in their eighties, and are hinting at retiring. Shelby will be 92 in 2022 and has been in the Senate for a third of a century. Grassley is currently 87 and will be 89 in 2022—and 95 if he wins another term. He’s said he’ll announce a decision next year. 

If they both retire, that would leave four of the 21 Republican held seats without incumbents, making them slightly more competitive, although a Democratic win in Alabama—short of another set of circumstances like those that produced the Doug Jones miracle in 2018—almost certainly won’t happen. 


And Trump acolyte, Republican Ron Johnson, in Wisconsin might retire as well—he says he’s “undecided”—possibly creating a fifth open seat, and another one in a State that Biden won this year. 

Then there’s Republican Marco Rubio in Florida, also up for re-election. He’s most likely to be the Ted Cruz or Susan Collins of 2022, the high profile and odious Republican incumbent that progressive Democrats nationally will want most passionately to defeat. That is likely to generate a lot of national financial support for whichever Democrat is up against Cruz. But Florida has not been kind to statewide Democratic candidates in recent years, so no guesses about that election. 

As a footnote: California will have both Senate seats on the ballot in 2022. And while it’s unlikely a Republican will win statewide in California these days, there might easily be Democratic primary battles, or at least behind-the-scenes turmoil, regarding both seats.  

One will be held by a two year appointee—as yet unknown—who will replace Kamala Harris. If he or she is viewed as vulnerable (and if their appointer, Gavin Newsom has become unpopular as Governor by 2022), then there could be a primary challenge.  

The other seat is held by Diane Feinstein, who has not been a friend of progressive Democrats and most recently seemed to give political cover to the Republican coronation of a new rabidly right-wing radical Supreme Court justice. That generated a lot of anger against her that might persist over the next year. So she could easily face a challenge from the left that could either weaken her in the primary or (much less likely) encourage her to retire when she can declare she’s successful and triumphant, and not run again.