Columns

ECLECTIC RANT: U.S.-North Korea summit — who is in the driver’s seat?l

Ralph E. Stone
Friday May 04, 2018 - 03:33:00 PM

A summit between North Korea and the U.S. is scheduled for late May or early June.  

On one side is North Korean leader Kim Jung-un, one of the world’s most brutal leaders of a land of chronic deprivation, who allegedly ordered the murder of his brother and uncle. Kim faces off against President Donald Trump, who reneged on the Paris climate agreement and threatens to pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement, and is under investigation by the Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller for obstruction of justice and conspiracy with the Russians to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. 

South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in, a liberal, took the initiative away from Trump when Kim accepted his invitation to send a delegation to the Olympic Games in PyeongChang, South Korea, which led to talks between the two leaders and eventually led to an invitation to the U.S. to a summit meeting between Trump and Kim. 

Since that time, Kim has agreed to stop nuclear research and testing and missile launches and agreed to inspections. He has said he would agree to a peace treaty with South Korea; the two countries have technically been at war since 1950. The two leaders pledged to stop hostile acts toward each other. Kim may even open up the border between the two countries. Kim has also said he would not demand the U.S. remove its troops from South Korea.  

And reportedly, Kim Dong-cheol, Kim Sang-deok, and Kim Hak-seong — three US citizens detained in North Korea for years — have been released from a suspected labor camp and given health treatment and ideological education in Pyongyang, and will be released to the U.S. on the day of the summit. 

The two Koreas even pledged to create a future of “complete denuclearization” in the Peninsula. Although, I can’t imagine Kim giving up his nuclear arsenal after spending billions creating it. After all, his nuclear arsenal and his cozying up to Moon has put him in the catbird seat for the upcoming summit with the U.S. 

Kim now wants to concentrate on North Korea’s economic issues and a promise that the U.S. will not invade North Korea.  

Kim also wants an end to sanctions against his country. The UN Security Council has passed a number of resolutions since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006 as have other countries including the U.S., China, South Korea, Japan, the European Union, and Australia. However, a report by the UN Panel of experts have concluded that North Korea was covertly trading in arms and minerals in defiance of the sanctions and the academic John Delury has described the sanctions as futile and counterproductive. The sanctions certainly did not stop North Korea from developing its nuclear program. 

Can we live with a North Korea with nuclear weapons? Consider that the U.S., Russia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China, India, and Pakistan already have nuclear weapons, and Israel is generally thought to have them. The U.S. has provided nuclear weapons for Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey to deploy and store. 

Of course, all this talk of peace by Kim and Moon is just that, talk. However, if a peace treaty is signed between the two Koreas, then the UN and other countries issuing sanctions may also be satisfied. (Sanctions can be reapplied if Kim reneges.) 

Because of the promising talks between the Korean leaders, Trump has lost much of his leverage. Will Trump settle for a symbolic “victory” if the two Koreas sign an agreement, or will he press for specifics and substance? What’s the alternative: war, more sanctions, or maintain the status quo to see if Kim keeps his promises? 

No matter what happens, it is a win-win for Kim.